A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. They composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a national vote in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has valuable insights to gain from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
